Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight talents Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez will throw down this weekend (Sat., April 27, 2024) at UFC Vegas 91 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Nicolau is a damn good Flyweight. Well-rounded and capable of finishing top-notch competition, Nicolau has flirted with a title shot on a couple of occasions. Twice now, however, a sudden knockout loss has derailed the Brazilian’s momentum, which he’s now tasked with rebuilding. Conversely, Perez did secure a shot at UFC gold back in 2020. He’s winless since then, having fought just twice in that span. Fortunately, this is his second fight of 2024, so perhaps Perez is finally ready to get back in the win column and get rolling?
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Nicolau Vs. Perez Betting Odds
- Matheus Nicolau victory: -185
- Matheus Nicolau via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
- Matheus Nicolau via submission: +275
- Matheus Nicolau via decision: +215
- Alex Perez victory: +140
- Alex Perez via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
- Alex Perez via submission: +800
- Alex Perez via decision: +500
- Draw: +5000
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How Nicolau Wins
Nicolau is a really skilled contender. He likes to counter punch, using his effective range kicking to force his opponents forward and walk them into heavy punches. Then, he’s a high-level jiu-jitsu black belt with quality wrestling skills, meaning he can really take the fight anywhere.
In this bout, counter punching seems like the path to victory. At his best, Perez is a strong wrestler who surges forward with punches-in-bunches. Nicolau has the footwork and range striking to diffuse that style, and Perez’s natural aggression could even result in more connections than usual for the 31-year-old veteran.
Perhaps the main key to victory here is to avoid the fence. Perez is an athlete who likes to bully his opponents, so Nicolau has to be disciplined in preventing him from building momentum. If Perez is able to corner him and land a combo or takedown, that could be the start of a major problem.
If Nicolau manages his position and distance carefully, he should be able to remain in complete control.
How Perez Wins
On his come up to a title shot, Perez proved himself a fierce contender. Heavy-handed and high-volume, Perez is also capable of overwhelming his opposition with takedowns, ground strikes, and submissions. Five of his seven UFC wins came before the final bell, ranging from a low kick stoppage to anaconda choke.
If Perez can get some pep back into his step — seriously, what went so wrong for the Californian contender? — he’s got a real shot at scoring the upset. There’s nowhere that Nicolau simply outclasses him, and it’s hard to ignore the simple facts that Nicolau has been stopped before and Perez has five rounds to find his chin.
It’s time for Perez’s aggression and physicality to make a return. Nicolau thrives in technical distance exchanges, but Perez has the skill set to make it ugly. If he’s pressing the pace, mixing takedowns and dirty boxing, and generally getting in Nicolau’s face, he’s going to force the Brazilian into uncomfortable positions.
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Nicolau vs. Perez Prediction
I don’t dislike the style match up for Perez. I think he has advantages in power, physicality, and overall pace. Both men are skilled enough wrestlers that it probably ends up a stand up battle, and Perez seems more likely to land a knockout blow.
It’s really hard to side against momentum, however. The most essential bottom line here is that Nicolau has won six of his last seven, whereas Perez hasn’t won a fight at all since June 2020. Furthermore, Perez didn’t look particularly sharp against Mohammed Mokaev, and he routinely struggles to make the Flyweight limit.
Most likely, Nicolau establishes his kicks, moves well, and picks apart Perez for the majority of 25 minutes.
Prediction: Matheus Nicolau via decision (+215)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 91 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
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