Nepal will continue its delicate balancing act between India and China, according to observers, after political manoeuvrings saw a new government coalition formed and a new prime minister sworn in this week.
The changes see a parliamentary shift away from the previous communist-dominated rule after the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) left its alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and instead formed a coalition with the centrist, New Delhi-leaning Nepali Congress – previously the country’s largest opposition party.
As the new coalition now holds the balance of power, the move meant a change of leader. So Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli of the UML took his oath of office on Monday – the fourth time he has served in the position – replacing predecessor Pushpa Kamal Dahal, head of the Maoists.
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While there is no bad blood between the two communist parties that previously formed government, for Nepal’s neighbours, it means a shift from a Nepali government that was pro-Beijing to one that hold a mixture of allegiances between Beijing and Delhi.
However according to observers, that shift is unlikely to fundamentally change the status quo, as Kathmandu has economic and security dependencies on both of the Asian powerhouses.
Professor Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said Nepal’s foreign policy is one of “pragmatism”.
“In fact, no matter who becomes Nepal’s prime minister, Kathmandu’s policy towards China and India is very unlikely to change. All these politicians are getting more and more shrewd and pragmatic,” Lin said.
“Nepalese diplomacy in the past has always been a balance between China and India, which is one of its basic lines. There might be slight differences between India-leaning or China-leaning in different governments, but they would definitely not offend the other one just because they are more friendly to one country.”
He added that Nepal’s constantly moving political landscape, with its frequent leadership changes, also makes it difficult to nurture any significant policy changes.
“This round of political change in Nepal is quite normal. Nepal hasn’t seen a full-term government for a long time,” he said. “Currently, Nepalese politicians have become less concerned with promoting their ideologies and more concerned over their party’s interests.”
In the past 16 years, Nepal has seen 14 such power shifts. Oli has been prime minister four times in 10 years; Dahal was prime minister three times.
Dr Amit Ranjan, a research fellow with the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, said that while Nepal cannot afford to cross swords with either country, Kathmandu’s pro-China and pro-India governance is “interesting to watch”.
“[The Nepali Congress] is considered to be pro-India and Oli is considered to be pro-China. So it will be interesting to see how they are moving,” Ranjan said.
The landlocked South Asian country has long been considered by Delhi as falling within India’s sphere of influence. India borders Nepal on three sides and Kathmandu is heavily dependent on Delhi in terms of trade and energy supply.
India was also a key player in helping to end the Nepalese Civil War, which ran from 1996 to 2006 after Dahal’s Maoists attempted to overthrow the Nepali monarchy. It was Delhi that helped strike a peace deal that saw the country successfully integrate communist parties into its political system.
Ranjan said that, historically, Nepal was more dependent on India, with long-held close ties that China cannot compete with.
That said, when Oli served his first term as prime minister in 2015, he angered Delhi over a new constitution that split the country into seven states, resulting in protests by the Madhesi group, mostly of Indian origin, who said they were not getting enough territory. As a result, India imposed an economic blockade on Nepal, stopping medicine and other supplies getting into the country.
Known as a friend of China, Oli also expressed Nepal’s willingness to cooperate with Beijing under the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure project that Delhi has been critical of.
While Nepal joined the initiative in 2017, there have not been any belt and road projects started as Kathmandu has yet to sign the implementation agreement with Beijing. The possibility of Oli signing the plan is Delhi’s main worry, according to The Times of India.
But Ranjan doubted that Oli would make any aggressive moves given his new alliance with the India-leaning Nepali Congress.
“This is an unnatural alliance, as the two parties are completely different. They’re polar opposites. They are not ideologically or politically aligned; they have fought against each other. So it’s very difficult to manage,” he said.
Under the former government and the China-leaning Dahal, there were significant moves to align Nepal with China, with both Dahal and his foreign minister visiting Beijing.
According to Ranjan, while there was no problem with such actions under the previous alliance of two communist parties which share the same ideologies, under the new coalition with the Nepali Congress, those days are now over.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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