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Top geopolitical risks for 2024 include “Ungoverned AI” and “Middle East on the brink,” report says

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Analysis of 2024’s geopolitical “Top Risks”


Breaking down 2024’s geopolitical “Top Risks” from the Eurasia Group

04:37

The United States versus itself and the Middle East on the brink top the list of geopolitical risks for 2024, according to a report from Eurasia Group, a leading geopolitical risk research and consulting firm.

The group called 2024 “a year of grave concern” as the U.S. deals with significant internal political challenges, despite its global economic and military dominance.

“The U.S. is the only country with a global military that can project its power all over the world. But it’s also by far the most dysfunctional political system among the wealthy democracies,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. “We are the only wealthy democracy that cannot guarantee a free and fair legitimate transfer of power, which is essential to a functional democracy.”

Bremmer said he travels around the world and said our allies are “deeply, deeply concerned” about the state of U.S. democracy in 2024, and that our adversaries see it as an “opportunity for chaos.”

“I’ve never seen anything like this in my life,” said Bremmer, who said the reason is the abundance of distrust of major institutions like Congress, churches or the media within the U.S.

“You now have antagonists between Trump supporters and Biden supporters who do not share the same basic understanding of facts,” he said. “Very much like Israel and Hamas. Very much like Russia and Ukraine.”

Here are the Eurasia Group’s top 10 risks for 2024, in the group’s words:

  1. The United States vs itself
  2. Middle East on the brink
  3. Partitioned Ukraine
  4. Ungoverned AI
  5. Axis of rogues
  6. No China recovery
  7. The fight for critical minerals
  8. No room for error
  9. El Niño is back
  10. Risky business

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