‘Policy trilemma’: US think-tank’s dire warning for Putin, Russia

NEW DELHI: Russia’s economy may only maintain its current strength for another 18 months before beginning to falter, according to insights from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The Washington DC-based think tank highlighted Russia’s robust economic performance despite increased military expenditures and extensive Western trade sanctions related to its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Despite these challenges, the International Monetary Fund has projected that Russia’s economy will grow faster than all other developed economies this year, including the United States.This growth has been partly attributed to Russia’s ability to circumvent sanctions by selling oil to allies and importing Western goods through third-party nations.
“A paradoxical situation has emerged: Russia’s economy is now stable both in spite of and as a result of Western sanctions,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. She further explained in her report that while Russia’s economic stability appears solid, it is not sustainable indefinitely. “But this hard-won stability is not eternal. In a best-case scenario, the current arrangement will likely begin to come apart within eighteen months owing to growing imbalances and possible social problems,” Prokopenko cautioned.
Russia is currently grappling with a policy “trilemma,” facing the challenge of funding its military operations, maintaining living standards for its citizens, and keeping the economy stable—goals that are becoming increasingly difficult to achieve simultaneously. The Kremlin’s record spending on military efforts this year could exacerbate these challenges, as defense expenditure is generally seen as economically unproductive.
Furthermore, living conditions in Russia are at risk of deteriorating. Inflation has spiked, forcing the central bank to hike interest rates to 16%. This measure, although aimed at controlling inflation, may reduce workers’ real incomes and lead to broader economic contraction. The resulting financial strain could increase Russians’ debt distress and heighten the risk of social discontent.
Economists have also raised concerns about the long-term impacts of a shrinking workforce, declining productivity, and Russia’s growing isolation from the global economy. “In an economy subordinate to political imperatives, there are few incentives for sustainable development. Sooner or later, this will hurt the well-being of ordinary Russians,” Prokopenko concluded, suggesting that temporary economic fixes might lead to significant political and economic challenges for the Kremlin.
(With inputs from agencies)