On Monday, Israel began evacuating Palestinian civilians from areas in Rafah in order to carry out a military operation, in a step it has long received international warnings about due to the presence of more than a million people in the border city with Egypt, the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip.
Israel has repeatedly considered a ground military operation in Rafah “necessary to eliminate the last Hamas brigades” which are classified as terrorist groups in the United States.
A report by the American Wall Street Journal, on Sunday, focused on the gains that Israel will achieve from this operation, compared to the negatives that it may face as a result of the invasion of the area where more than a million Palestinians are crowded.
The report pointed out that the invasion of Rafah “will be more dangerous” and the Israeli army will have to not cause much damage that “would fuel international anger, weaken Israel’s relationship with the United States, or cause the killing of some hostages” who have been held in Gaza since the 7th October.
The report also indicated that there are fears that “normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia may be affected by this process, in addition to the already existing tensions with Egypt,” due to Israel’s intention to carry out its attack on Rafah, adjacent to the Egyptian border.
Egypt warned Israel on more than one occasion against launching such an operation, especially since it is located very close to its borders, stressing its rejection of the “displacement” of Palestinians.
The United States and many countries around the world also warned Israel against launching a ground military invasion of Rafah, amid fears of potentially disastrous effects on civilians who were displaced to the city.
According to the World Health Organization, the number of residents of the city of Rafah is about 1.2 million people, the majority of whom were displaced from other areas in the Strip as a result of the ground invasion, genocide by Israel that has been ongoing for 7 months.
On Monday, the Israeli army began evacuating Palestinian civilians from Rafah, which it said would be “limited in scope and temporary”.
Agence France-Presse quoted the Israeli army as saying that its call is a “limited and temporary” operation, noting that it “includes about 100,000 people”.
An Israeli military spokesman stated that the evacuation is “part of our plans to dismantle Hamas… Yesterday we received a violent reminder of their presence and operational capabilities in Rafah,” adding that the evacuation is “to keep people away from danger”.
Accounts of gains and losses
The Wall Street Journal quoted the Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Tamir Hayman, as saying that there are “benefits” to the military operation in Rafah, which are “completely eliminating the presence of Hamas in Gaza, and destroying the tunnels on the border area between Egypt and the Gaza Strip”. Gaza, to prevent weapons smuggling.
He added, “If that attack is not carried out, Hamas will try to restore its military capabilities in the rest of the Strip,” but Hayman pointed out that these gains “will not outweigh the costs that Israel may pay, especially in light of the opportunity to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and build a strong regional partnership that can represent… A front to confront Iran.
He explained: “The benefits are very few, especially compared to the negatives”.
This comes after the chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza diminished, following Sunday’s meetings in Cairo, in light of Hamas’s insistence on its demand to end the invasion of the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of the hostages, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected that.
On Sunday, Hamas launched a rocket attack on the Kerem Shalom crossing on the border between the Palestinian Strip and Israel, killing 4 Israeli soldiers, according to what the army announced. This came after statements in which Netanyahu confirmed that the military invasion of Rafah “will happen with or without a hostage deal”.
Cairo News Channel, which is close to Egyptian intelligence, quoted a source it described as “high-ranking” on Monday, saying that the Hamas attack on the Kerem Shalom crossing led to “faltering truce negotiations”.
On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said that Hamas “seems not serious” about reaching a truce.
He added, according to Reuters: “We notice worrying indications that Hamas does not intend to reach an agreement with us. This means that a strong military movement will begin in Rafah in the very near future, as well as in the rest of the Gaza Strip”.
Meanwhile, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, said on Sunday that the movement “is still keen to reach a comprehensive, interconnected agreement that ends the aggression, guarantees withdrawal, and achieves a serious prisoner exchange deal”.
Haniyeh held Netanyahu responsible for “inventing permanent justifications for the continuation of the aggression, expanding the circle of conflict, and sabotaging the efforts made by mediators and various parties.”
High costs
The Wall Street Journal report stated that “controlling Rafah may allow the Israeli Prime Minister to declare complete victory for Israel and achieve its goal of eliminating Hamas, which is what Netanyahu needs before the next elections”.
But the newspaper pointed out that the cost “will be great on the international scene” as after about 7 months of aggression against civilians, “international sympathy for Israel has declined” after the October 7 attack, in light of the large number of Palestinian deaths approaching 35,000 people, according to the Health officials in Gaza.
The United States had warned Israel against carrying out a military attack on Rafah without a realistic plan to move civilians out of harm’s way. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said this week that Washington “has not yet seen a plan with such specifications”.
The newspaper’s report considered that “the Biden administration’s reluctance to take measures against Israel, such as withholding military aid or not using its veto power at the United Nations in its favor, may change by Israel implementing an operation in Rafah without Washington’s approval.”
The Wall Street Journal also pointed out that the attack on Rafah “may cost Israel damage to its already tense relationship with Egypt,” as the fighting will be “complicated” in Rafah, where the 9-mile-long Philadelphia axis is located on the border with Egypt, and Israel says that It contains “a network of tunnels that allows the smuggling of weapons to Hamas.”
Fighting in an area crowded with civilians “may cause large numbers of Palestinians to flow into Sinai, which could threaten, in a worst-case scenario, the peace treaty signed between Egypt and Israel since 1979.”
The report also explained that “the normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, which the US administration is promoting as part of a comprehensive deal to end the war and rebuild Gaza, may be taken off the table if the attack is carried out, at least in the near term.”
The Wall Street Journal noted that “the military operation may also mean that Israel will lose the opportunity to convince Arab partners, such as the UAE, to pump money into Gaza and help with reconstruction”.
