Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) will defend his championship crown against undefeated former junior middleweight champion Jaime Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) this Saturday, May 4th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This match has the makings for an all-out war.
Jaime Munguia is a highly offensive volume puncher who seeks to impose his will and ultimately knock out Canelo. Will he succeed? Alvarez has fought many strong punchers in the past and his granite chin survived them all.
He fought Gennady Golovkin three times and former light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev, defeating them both. Munguia is a strong volume puncher who breaks his opponents down through his relentless pressure and volume.
According to Compubox, Munguia’s average output is 63 punches per round while Canelo has a lower rate with an average of 40.8 punches thrown per round. Canelo is economical with his punches but he’s effective, between the two, he’s the one with the higher connect percentage at 35.3 percent.
Munguia is an offensive puncher with very limited defense. If Canelo can minimize Munguia’s output by successfully defending, he’ll create the openings for his counterattack.
Canelo must effectively defend by catching, slipping, and rolling Munguia’s punches and then precisely landing his counters. Canelo has in the past been successful against aggressive pressure fighters by employing this strategy. He has excellent head movement, quick reflexes, and decently fast hands.
He is good at timing opponents, making them miss, and countering them with precision. John Ryder faced both Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia and although losing to both, offensively he struggled much more at landing against Canelo than he did with Munguia. Connecting on only 17.5 percent of his punches versus Canelo, as opposed to the 25.7 percent he connected against Munguia.
Jaime does not like mobile fighters, he tends to struggle against those fighters who utilize movement. Even limited movement creates offensive challenges for Munguia. Dennis Hogan boxed Munguia in 2019 and exposed his limited leg movement, he outlanded him by one punch 123 to 122 in his majority decision loss.
Since then, other boxers have had limited success against Munguia by creating space and being out of range. Sergiy Derevyanchenko (15-5, 10 KOs) intelligently boxed Munguia by utilizing in and out movement, outlanding Munguia in 6- of the 12 rounds they fought in.
He also landed 32.4 percent of his power punches. A simple tactic Sergiy employed was simply stepping out of range, Canelo not the most mobile can employ this tactic against Munguia.
Canelo Alvarez has the advantage in experience, defense, and power. The biggest question will be if at 33, Canelo has aged to a point where his skills have diminished so significantly as to not allow him to effectively compete against Munguia. He has the skill set to successfully defeat an overly aggressive volume puncher.
Throughout the years he’s fought varying boxing styles,
managing to adapt to all of them, this should be no different.
Munguia only holds a 2-inch reach advantage and would hold beneficial to Jaime only if he decides to devise a surprise tactic by boxing on the outside or if Munguia’s punch resistance can’t hold to Canelo’s power, forcing him to the outside to evade his punches.
The hungry lion seeks to dethrone the reigning king will he be successful? Canelo doesn’t seem ready to relinquish his crown quite yet.
Source: Compubox
