Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 301

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight grapplers Caio Borralho and Paul Craig will throw down this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301

No. 14-ranked Caio Borralho has separated himself from the 185-pound pack for a very simple reason: he’s quite good, and most Middleweights are not. He may not always be a thrilling watch, but Borralho has a well-rounded skill set, great conditioning, and the ability to actually follow a game plan.

Craig makes for the perfect foil, because he is bad by several objective metrics. Of course, that hasn’t stopped him from defeating former and future champions like Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua! Craig is uniquely dangerous, and he can never be truly counted out of a fight despite his obvious flaws.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig Betting Odds

• Caio Borralho victory: -540
• Caio Borralho via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Caio Borralho via submission: TBD
• Caio Borralho via decision: TBD
• Paul Craig victory: +340
• Paul Craig via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Paul Craig via submission: TBD
• Paul Craig via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Borralho Wins

Caio Borralho is a smart and tactical fighter. He uses a karate-style stance and movement to maintain distance, scoring kicks and occasional counter punches. Most of the time, he’s waiting for a moment to time his athletic double leg, and he’s a black belt on the floor.

There’s a clear reason that Borralho is such a significant favorite: he’s just better. He’s the sharper kickboxer by a clear margin, the superior wrestler, and Borralho’s jiu-jitsu is very good in its own right. He has the skill to grapple with Craig and avoid the triangle, particularly since everyone knows that’s Craig’s ace in the hole.

In his last bout, Borralho let Abus Magomedov tire himself out a bit then really upped the pressure and volume in the second. A similar game plan seems wise here, in that Borralho can slowly beat up Craig then turn up the aggression as Craig starts to feel the punishment. Borralho needs finishes to climb the ladder quickly and shed his boring reputation — this is a good opponent for those goals.

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How Craig Wins

I say this with love: Paul Craig is one of the wonkiest fighters on the roster. His kickboxing game is inconsistent, his defense isn’t great, he always falls to his knees when shooting double leg takedowns — yet he has a genuinely great resume and has worked into the Top 10 in two separate divisions.

Scottish magic, perhaps? Craig doesn’t quit, and he’ll turn a small opening into a broken arm real quick.

Match ups never look good for Craig on paper, but this isn’t an impossible fight for him. Borralho is not a fearsome puncher, so Craig can feel more comfortable in advancing behind combinations and kicks. We haven’t really seen Borralho’s takedown defense tested, so perhaps Craig can indeed muscle him to the floor.

If not, Craig hits reasonably hard. At worst, his aggression probably draws a takedown from Borralho, which at least gets Craig to the floor where he wants to be.

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Borralho vs. Craig Prediction

My prediction is probably fairly obvious at this point.

Barring a sudden Craig triangle choke — always possible! — Borralho should win this fight everywhere. He’s younger, better, and on the rise. He has the skills and smarts to keep himself out of trouble while still delivering an ass-kicking. Much like Brendan Allen did in Craig’s last fight, Borralho should be able to beat his opponent up wherever the fight goes, and the threat of the submission subsides after a certain amount of punches land.

The Brazilian should mind his P’s and Q’s, but this is a stylistic layup.

Prediction: Borralho victory (-540)